Owen Polley: Unionists must try to push the Northern Ireland Protocol to fore of politics in London

The two candidates to become Tory leader (and prime minister) were accompanied by London’s foremost news-crews and lobby journalists, while Ulster locations formed the backdrop for Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak to battle over the economy and inflation.

Actually, while it is often claimed that Northern Ireland is ignored unjustly by national politicians, and while one journalist last week described it as the ‘neglected periphery’ of the UK, since Brexit, we have commanded more column inches and political attention than at any time since the height of the Troubles.

We form less than 3% of the UK’s population, but, in truth, we gain far more coverage and attention than our numbers strictly merit. Unfortunately, that’s not necessarily a good thing, nor are the reasons for it welcome.

Since 2016, we’ve been used and abused by all sides in the Brexit debate, for example. They all claim to be motivated by protecting our ‘peace process’, but frequently their intentions appear less sincere.

The EU and many remainers seemed to want to employ Northern Ireland to derail Brexit completely.

Meanwhile, Theresa May and her negotiators thought they could use our position to maintain a close economic relationship with Brussels for the whole of the UK, without arguing for that outcome honestly.

Boris Johnson exploited unionist sentiment to overthrow Mrs May, then cast the Act of Union aside to ensure Great Britain could leave the EU with a trade deal, even if that meant leaving Northern Ireland behind.

We were the convenient Gordian knot that nobody could untangle, but everybody could invoke to support their own agendas.

That’s why two of Westminster’s highest profile politicians are still discussing the Northern Ireland Protocol, even though it’s highly unlikely to be what they want this protracted leadership contest to be about.

The difficulty for unionists, who desperately want the Irish Sea border sorted, not least so that they can move on and promote a more positive message, is that the government’s attention will tend to drift away from the matter again in the autumn.

The problems that the protocol created were apparent to ministers as soon as it came into operation in January 2021, but their attempts to soften its impact have ebbed and flowed ever since.

Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss both claim that the Irish Sea border will finally be dealt with through the government’s Protocol Bill, assuming they fail in the interim to reach an agreement with the EU on removing checks, paperwork and other constitutional issues. The legislation is due to reach the House of Lords in October, when it is almost certain to prompt more claims of illegality and attempts to amend its contents.

By that time, the summer heatwave and people’s holidays will be long forgotten. A new prime minister will be struggling with enormous pressures caused by inflation, rising energy costs, frequent industrial action, a worsening housing crisis and overrun hospitals.

Truss and Sunak both want the top job, but neither is likely to get a political honeymoon, if they win the keys to number 10.

This has implications for Northern Ireland and the likelihood of getting a resolution on the protocol. But it could work in one of two ways.

Firstly, all these impending crises might mean that the Irish Sea border is effectively pushed off the political agenda at Westminster.

For the moment, it looks relatively unlikely that Rishi Sunak will become prime minister, but, if he does, he wants to negotiate with the EU over the protocol first, while keeping the bill as an insurance policy if Brussels refuses to be reasonable. He may be an ‘experienced international negotiator’, but if Britain is lurching towards a winter of crises, Northern Ireland’s status is not likely to be his top priority.

Truss is less bullish about the chances of persuading Brussels to be pragmatic, but, by then, from the perspective of Westminster, Northern Ireland may appear like a distraction from more immediate problems facing the UK.

Perhaps, though, a new prime minister will regard starting a row with Brussels as a different kind of distraction, potentially diverting the attention of journalists away from writing doom-laden predictions of hungry children, freezing pensioners and striking workers.

That may be a cynical view of the way politics at Westminster works, but it is best to be prepared for the worst.

Certainly, for Northern Ireland’s future and the future of the UK, it remains vital to deal with the protocol quickly and for good.

Unionists will have to press Prime Minister Truss or Prime Minister Sunak hard on this as soon as they take office, or else the issue will inevitably slip down the government’s agenda, as it has done several times before.