Ben Lowry: The prospect of direct rule is almost the only political weapon that the UK still possesses

This is a concession with unknowable consequences but with huge constitutional implications, yet it has been conceded without a whimper of protest from unionism. 

In fact, some unionists periodically call for a return to direct rule as if it has not been removed as a potential way out of political impasse.


Chris Heaton-Harris, the current secretary of state, has said several times that there can be no Joint Authority over Northern Ireland (in belated response a question first posed by this newspaper, about whether he would countenance such an outcome). But that was never likely. The much more important question is whether or not undiluted direct rule can return.

For reasons that we all know, Northern Ireland is politically dysfunctional (dominated by two equal-sized groups with diametrically opposed constitutional aims). The abnormal way of trying to resolve that division, mandatory coalition, is at perpetual risk of collapse. But a fundamental imbalance in the political impact of forced power-sharing in Northern Ireland is becoming ever more apparent.

Sinn Fein not only wants Northern Ireland to cease to exist, it has begun to believe that such a scenario is near. It has a hot or cold approach to Stormont, depending on whether or not the assembly suits its aims at a particular time. 

The party calculated (accurately) after 2017, that it could afford to keep devolution down without suffering consequences until it got an Irish language act.

Unionists, on the other hand, passionately want NI to exist. It is made clear to them that SF must always be in the system, or else there is no Stormont, and increased Irish say. So if SF make a non negotiable demand unionists must always meet it (which as early as 2018 the DUP were trying to do over Gaelic).


I feel almost embarrassed setting out the above points because they are so obvious. Yet even informed pro Union figures have a blind-spot about their implications.

During the 2017-2020 stalemate, one such voice - a respected academic - attacked Stephen Nolan for amplifying ‘extreme voices’, saying this discouraged the parties from moving towards compromise. But I think such criticism showed a stark misunderstanding of what is happening in NI.

It implied that while the two political poles in the province are always pulling in different directions (as they are) the resulting disputes are always resolved by equal compromise (they patently are’t, with the exception of 1998). 

Almost every negotiation since then has resulted in a small gain for nationalism. Nationalists not only admit this reality, that ‘settlements’ only go in their direction, they taunt unionists that each time they reject a political proposal they end up with a worse one imposed on them.

Westminster needs to understand that the Union will not survive unless this cycle is broken. It is why I argued so strongly against succumbing to republican blackmail after 2017. The prospect of undiluted direct rule is not only an essential part of the UK armoury, it is almost the only weapon left.

Such a resumption of control from London was brought in by John Reid in October 2002 after grievous breaches of trust by republicans including spying and a break-in. The then NI Secretary Dr Reid was backed by his PM Tony Blair, who knew what was at stake and travelled to Belfast to say “we cannot carry on with the IRA half in, half out of this process. Not just because it isn’t right any more. It won’t work any more”.

Yet Conservative and Unionists governments seem not to see what that Labour one (for all its flaws on NI) could – that the right to implement direct rule is a key component of sovereignty.

This week Simon Coveney, the sometimes subtly pro nationalist Irish foreign minister, sometimes overtly so, was allowed by the latest batch of ill-informed (and easily outwitted) NIO ministers to make clear that London would not take major decisions such as over an election without Dublin approval.

Mr Heaton-Harris or the intermittently tough talking Steve Baker did not even hint at contradicting Mr Coveney.

Unionists still meet that partisan Irish leader, despite the context of UK weakness on sovereignty. The DUP in fact didn’t meet Mr Coveney recently but denied it was a snub. Even if it had been a snub, much of the implied ‘joint say’ rhetoric passes without criticism.

If London no longer reserves the right to return to direct rule in extremis, and take decisions that the Republic of Ireland might not like, then it is a constitutional matter of as much import as the Irish Sea border.

I should say that some influential people in London insist that unionists have put themselves in their predicament. They say that the government has had no payback from the DUP for the hammering it has taken over the NI Protocol Bill. 

They point to a speech Sir Jeffrey Donaldson gave in Westminster on June 27, in which he said about that legislation: “If this bill convincingly passes all its Commons stages in its current form and the government continue to develop the regulations required to bring to an end the harmful implementation of the protocol, that will of course give substantially greater confidence that new arrangements are on the way, which in turn would provide a basis to take further steps to see the return of our local institutions.”

Even if ministers think that was a pledge which has not been kept, they should not concede anything as massively damaging to unionism as the Irish claim that direct rule cannot return.

• Ben Lowry (@BenLowry2) is News Letter editor

• Ben Lowry October 29: Unionism needs help, not a Neutral Ireland Office

• Ben Lowry Oct 26: Heaton-Harris stays in office and unionists should be relieved — but only because it could have been worse

• Ben Lowry Oct 22: It is hard to see a good result for unionism from Tory turmoil

• Ben Lowry Oct 15: Up the Ra chant shows why unionists should steer clear of New Ireland

• Ben Lowry Oct 8: It does seem the UK is edging towards a deal with EU over NI, but not yet

• Ben Lowry Oct 1: The budget reflected a ‘big spending’ culture that we share in Northern Ireland

• Ben Lowry: Sleepy Creeslough familiar to many people from NI