The Windsor Framework: From peace process into prosperity process

There is currently only one story in the world of business and politics that is getting the oxygen of media interest – the Windsor Framework and its potential role in underpinning the restoration of the Stormont Assembly.

While intense discussion is understandably focussed on the short term, there is also a need to raise our sights and look at the medium and long term. We are rapidly approaching the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement, marking two and a half decades of the ‘peace process’. The challenge - and opportunity – now facing us is to lay the foundations so the next 25 years will be defined as the ‘prosperity process’.

When the Prime Minister spoke last week to promote the Windsor Framework, there was a strangely comforting sense of déjà vu as he expressed an almost unbridled ambition for NI to seize the benefits, saying: “If we get this implemented, NI is in the unbelievably special position ... the world's most exciting economic zone”.

The familiarity of this vision stemmed from the fact it is almost exactly the embodiment of a post-Brexit vision that FSB set out five years ago. That FSB policy paper proposed to ‘Make NI an Enhanced Economic Zone’ with access to the UK and EU markets, using a yet-to-be-created electronic Regulatory Compliance Certification Service to differentiate between goods coming into NI and those passing through.

Given that the Windsor Framework essentially delivers the policy that FSB developed after detailed consultation with our membership, supporting it in principle is a logical position to adopt. The key caveat is around the need to ensure that the written text and eventual legislation match the words we have heard.

In business, people often reach agreements, then let the lawyers draw up the paperwork to give effect to it – but they then always check the detail. We’ve heard the words of the deal; soon we’ll be able to view the work of the lawyers.

Assuming we see the necessary detail in the written texts, that should lay the foundation for a proper prosperity process. A powerful offering in itself, but capable of improvement, so what else might be included to make it truly transformational?

If we want to bake in a prosperity process, we need to consider where we are now; where we want to see ourselves in a couple of decades; and what we need to do to get there. We have a unique set of relationships – with the UK, the EU, and the US – and there is deep goodwill that will respond positively to initiatives we devise to help ourselves. A prosperity process must generate wealth and opportunity, lift under-served communities, produce revenues to support public services, and make NI less dependent on subvention.

What might we do to improve things, and what assets are available to include in our offering?

With a restored Executive, we can have short decision-making chains, meaning a dynamic system can emerge.

We have much higher than average levels of economic inactivity – around 26% of the working-age population – which, with the right supports in place, means we have many thousands of people who could be available to join the labour force. And we have top quality universities and colleges, so skills and training can align the workforce with the labour market needs.

We also have the Corporation Tax (NI) Act of 2015 which means the Executive can introduce a lower, more competitive rate of company tax, some 10% lower than the incoming UK rate. The five Executive parties supported the policy that led to the introduction of this legislation, so choosing to use it is an obvious initiative.

In summary, unique access to two of the largest markets on the planet; tens of thousands of potential workers available through the introduction of supporting interventions such as childcare; high quality tertiary education capable of delivering the skills needed for incoming foreign direct investors; and an attractive, competitive rate of corporation tax sufficient to level the playing field with the Republic and make NI the leading UK investment destination.

I believe this package would be compelling in getting business to support the Windsor Framework as the foundation for a transformational economic offering that would let indigenous businesses blossom, as well as attracting major investment from around the planet – truly an exciting Enhanced Economic Zone that is entirely within our grasp if we have the confidence and courage to seize it.